Byline: GREG IP Wall Street Journal
WASHINGTON -- It's make-or-break time for the economy.
A recovery, it appears, has begun. A potent jolt of monetary and fiscal stimulus is lifting consumer spending, and business confidence is reviving.
But the real challenge stretches into the next year: When the adrenaline rush of lower interest rates and big tax cuts ebbs, will the expansion have gained enough momentum to continue? Or will it fade, as earlier stimulus-stoked expansions did in 2002 and again earlier this year?
Recent evidence favors a positive outcome, yet the many obstacles facing this recovery make predictions difficult. And if growth does fade, watch out: Economic policy-makers already have used up much of their monetary and fiscal ammunition.
The economy shouldn't need repeated doses of tax and interest-rate cuts to grow, any more than a person should need repeated doses of antibiotics to remain healthy. The economy naturally tends to expand as population rises and …
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